DISQUS

Steve B. · 5 months ago

Um, no. Dave won. Handily. Dave slaughtered Conan in the overalls, and is inching towards a whisker behind in the 18-49. The trends are becoming more and more concrete, with Late Show holding steady while Tonight continues to fall.

Nightline did well, but was still getting huge view-ins for the MJJ funeral coverage Tuesday. Plus, as Nightline is only a half hour, the Jimmy Kimmel numbers surely pulled the hour overall down below Dave.

No question, you headline only got it 1/3 right - Letterman wins late night.

Andrew · 5 months ago

Nightline doesn't really even belong in this conversation. They're comparing their half-hour numbers with Dave & Conan's one-hour numbers. Since late night viewership always declines as time advances, it's an unfair comparison. The first half numbers of both Dave & Conan outperform Nightline.

USA Network Fan · 5 months ago

Those numbers for The Tonight Show are TERRIBLE! It doesnt matter if it has a 1.1 demo, 2.8 million viewers is AWFUL. Dave easily wins in my book.

Tony · 5 months ago

Definitely - Dave wins - and he will KEEP winning, as I previously predicted. I told someone I will come back in 6 months, 12, months and 18 months and we will see the proof that Conan is going to continue to lose this race. And, come on, 1.1 vs. .8? I mean, can we "round up" and say the demographic is about 1.0 - in other words, not far from being a 'tie.' As I've said, I like both Conan AND Dave, but I want Conan back in his old slot - this is NOT his slot; and it WILL be proven - unless Dave keeps letting them put 'equally infantile' pranks on his show, like he did tonight with "Gurgle the Puzzle" or whatever the heck it was. Either way, it's much less painful than watching Conan - who was AWESOME in his old slot!

Joe · 5 months ago

Can't say I'm shocked. The CBS booking department has been getting some pretty good gets as of late. Compared to Conan's they've been fantastic. I mean just look. Here's each one's lead off guest over the past three weeks (Not including the week of repeats which did not help Conan at all - hmm, 30 minutes or Wimbledon recap which I can see on ESPN at anytime I want, or Letterman. Not a hard pick there. It's miraculous Conan was even able to pull off a 2.4)


Conan

Week 5 - Howie Mandel, Samuel L. Jackson, Meredith Vieira, Larry King, Bob Newhart

Week 6 - Jeff Goldblum, Michael Phelps, Dana Carvey, Gerard Butler, Steven Ho/Wirework

Letterman

Week 5 - Hayden Panetierre, Sacha Baron Cohen, Queen Latifah, Daniel Radcliffe, Rainn Wilson

Week 6 - Jonah Hill, Edie Falco, Paul McCartney, Anderson Cooper, Tom Arnold


Lets see. We've got Sacha Baron Cohen, Harry Potter, (Emma Watson who is also in Harry Potter was the second guest when Queen Latifah was on), Dwight from The Office, Jonah Hill from Superbad, Edie Falco who has the most popular cable show on TV right now, and Paul McfrigginCartney.

Anyone want to take a guess as to why the gap has narrowed in the demo, and Letterman has the lead in viewers?

Conan's still establishing himself and NBC needs to give their potential audience (and Leno's viewers) a reason to check Conan out. Conan's loyal viewers are thankfully still there (such as myself), and he still has the demo lead over Letterman (which sure as hell took a hit a couple of nights ago - Carvey vs. McCartney...hmm that's a solid matchup) but the guests are as big a part of this as Conan is. He can't do everything by himself. The quality is there but the guests aren't.

Conan should at least bounce back in the demo next week (and close the gap somewhat in viewers) with Adam Sandler/Peter Sarsgaard on Monday and Jonah Hill/Cheryl Hines on Tuesday. Letterman's got Katherine Heigl/Jeff Altman and Kevin Spacey/Jesse James.

If Conan gets semi A-listers consistently he'll be in good shape. The booking department just has to wake up.

Steve B. · 5 months ago

So Joe, it's all just the bookings? Next, we're going to go to the lead-in argument again. The bookings are a part, but it really boils down to this: Letterman is putting on a superior show. A more comfortable show, a funnier show, and yes, one with bigger stars. But Conan still needs to pick it up on the first two points.

Joe · 5 months ago

No it's not just about the bookings, but I'd say it's the biggest part of it at this point. Just two weeks ago (not counting the repeats) Conan beat Letterman in weekly viewers (barely, thanks to Johnny Depp's 4.4 draw). Two weeks later Letterman is almost beating him by a million. I don't think that many people just all of sudden abandoned ship. If Letterman were more like Jay that could've been the case (and no doubt some people have left Conan for Dave), but he's Conan's style more than anyone.

Letterman might be putting on the better show at this point, but why shouldn't he be? He knows his audience. He's catered to them for 16 years. He knows what they like. Conan's been on the job two months and is still trying to figure out how to please those between 18-54 at the same time. I think if he had better guests the transition would be much easier for people (Leno's former viewers) to handle.

We'll know more after this week.

Conan

Monday - Adam Sandler, Peter Sarsgaard, Kate Voegele
Tuesday - Jonah Hill, Cheryl Hines, comic Dan Naturman
Wednesday - Mat Kearney (musical guest) (Other guests to be determined)
Thursday - Zach Galifianakis, Jason Aldean (musical guest) (no second/first guest yet- depending on how highly they think of Galifianakis)
Friday - Seth Rogen, Rose Byrne, De La Soul


Letterman

Monday - Katherine Heigl, comedian Jeff Altman, Spinerette
Tuesday - Kevin Spacey, Jesse James, the Flatlanders
Wednesday - Tracy Morgan, Leslie Mann, Diane Birch
Thursday - Vera Farmiga, Ginuwine with Missy Elliot (no second guest yet)
Friday - comic Nick Griffin, Judy Collins (no lead guest yet)

For the first time in three weeks Conan has an (arguably) better lineup than Dave does. For the reasons I said above, I think we'll see a closer race in total viewers, or at least not another 900,000 win for Letterman again. And the demo lead for Conan should go back to where it was.

Steve B. · 5 months ago

So, are you saying Conan didn't bring any of his audience along from 12:30? It's not like Conan just came over from college radio. Both Dave and Conan have had dozens of years to know their audiences. Right now, Dave is doing a better job of the two at catering to JAY'S audience, and tweaking his show (the monologue, for instance) to capture Jay's audience.

BTW, Conan better learn to deal with the booking issues, because if he thinks it's substandard now, just wait until Jay comes back on a the air 90 minutes earlier and 2 miles away.

Joe · 5 months ago

What did I say that would suggest Conan didn't bring any of his audience over? His audience (18-49) is keeping him afloat at the moment. His audience is 10 years younger than Leno's and Letterman's. It's now about attracting the audience that wasn't watching at 12:35. The people who are 10 years older. Jay's audience. The crowd who didn't stay up for Conan.

And you're absolutely right. Dave is doing a better job of catering to that crowd. Yes he might be tweaking his show around a little, but ultimately he's getting the better guests.

Steve B. · 5 months ago

By stating that Dave should be putting on a better show because he's been on the air on CBS for 16 years and knows his 11:30 audience better, it seems you are suggesting that Dave has a built-in crowd he is catering to and Conan does not. I'm suggesting that Conan has had his own show for quite a while, has his own audience, but is not hanging on to all of them. His audience is beginning to leave, and that is because they don't love what they see. As I said, Conan is not putting on a great show for ANY audience, Jay's, Dave's or his own. We'll see if that changes - who knows, maybe playing off Sandler will be the first step.

Joe · 5 months ago

His audience was much smaller than Dave's though. Even though its only an hour we're talking about the difference of about million/million and a half people. Both had their built in audiences but Letterman's was much larger. Conan is still trying to attract new people/Jay's former audience. I think for the most part his Late Night audience is still with him. That's why he's been winning in the demo.

As for the quality of the show, that of course depends on the viewer. But I don't think the quality of the show is driving people away (despite his struggling with finding a fine line with what works at 11:35 vs. 12:35 - he really needs to stop with the remotes). I honestly think at this point it just comes down to the guests. Whoever has the best guest on that night will win that night and I think that will continue until Jay comes back. Then all hell breaks loose.

Steve B. · 5 months ago

Once again, if it comes down to guests, Conan will lose, and starting in September, lose big. Dave and Jay never had a huge guest discrepancy, yet Jay was winning handily for the last decade.

NBC did not give Conan the 11:30 slot to simply bring along the 12:30 crowd. He had 5 YEARS to develop a coherent plan to win over his old audience and Jay's, and had months of downtime to work things out. To this point, NBC must be disappointed in the numbers, and Bill Carter's recent NYT articles suggest.

Lastly, remember that this change from 12:30 to 11:30 isn't an impossible task. After all, David Letterman did it 16 years ago, created a new program on a network that never had any success at late night, was burdened with lower affiliate clearances, and still quickly ascended to the lead in overalls and the demos. Sure, Jay beat him years later, but what Conan is doing now makes Letterman's accomplishments in '93 all the more impressive.

Mike Baldwin · 4 months ago

I just find it very odd that in the above article he refuses to acknowledge that Dave is in fact winning and now that the rest of the entertainment industry is talking about his continued dominance there has suddenly been a halt on coverage by this blog. Week after week he discussed it and now that Dave is winning in a clear a decisive manner that NBC can't spin away - the coverage stops. Let's see what happens when Dave wins a week when Conan is in repeats...

The Live Feed · 4 months ago

the article is a tongue-in-cheek play on how all three networks claimed victory the same week, an each had a not-bad point....

i dont cover every press release in the ratings race, just the ones i find interesting

the suggestion that i'm somehow biased toward one particular broadcaster is silly, but the industry is not talking about dave "winning in a clear decisive manner" ... dave has improved slightly to take the lead in viewers while "tonight" has fallen sharply under a new host -- that's the story, and i try not to tell the same story too many times ... if conan were winning in total viewers but still losing the demo nobody would be talking about him as the clear victor either...